Data Sources and Monitoring Approach 

To capture prevailing narratives, comprehensive digital media monitoring was conducted using the Analytics.live AI-driven social listening platform. This study tracked online media articles in Kosovo and North Macedonia. The analysis focused on the most engaged content—articles with the highest readership, sharing, and discussion levels—under each topic of interest. By isolating top-performing news pieces, the study identified the narratives that had the greatest impact on public discourse. Engagement levels were used as a proxy for influence, under the assumption that highly engaged articles drive public opinion. The AI-powered platform enabled automated categorization of narratives (e.g., pro-China vs. anti-China sentiment). 

Period of Analysis 

The monitoring covered content published between July 1, 2024, and February 20, 2025—a period marked by significant geopolitical events. To assess how narratives evolved with political shifts, the timeframe was divided into two phases: the Pre-Trump Period (July 2024 - January 19, 2025), leading up to the U.S. presidential inauguration, and the Post-Trump Period (January 20 - February 20, 2025), following the U.S. presidential transition. This division allowed for an analysis of the impact of the U.S. political transition, particularly the return of Donald Trump, on regional media narratives. The study focused on the top 500 articles per topic in the first phase and 250 in the second phase to ensure a representative discourse sample. 

Chart 1: Identified narratives in media articles in North Macedonia, pre and post Trump 

China’s Influence in Kosovo and North Macedonia Media: The Next Front in a Global Power Struggle? 

The study examined media content regarding China’s role in the region, particularly in investment projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, technology cooperation in AI development, and political influence. Narratives were categorized as pro-China, emphasizing the benefits of Chinese investments and partnerships; anti-China, warning against risks such as debt-traps or geopolitical ambitions; and pro-U.S. or anti-U.S., reflecting how China-related discussions also shaped attitudes toward the United States. 

Contrasting Narratives in North Macedonia and Kosovo 

China’s growing presence and influence in the Western Balkans have not gone unnoticed by the region’s media, which presents a complex picture of both interest and apprehension. The narrative analysis for topics related to China reveals a nuanced and often polarized view in North Macedonia, versus a more uniformly critical or cautious view in Kosovo. During mid-2024 to January 2025, North Macedonia’s media had almost equal parts pro-China and anti-China content, indicating a highly divided discourse on China​. On one hand, pro-China narratives in North Macedonian outlets highlighted opportunities from Chinese investments and technology. These might include positive reports on infrastructure projects under China’s Belt and Road Initiative, or enthusiasm about technological cooperation (for example, local coverage of China’s advances in artificial intelligence, sometimes suggesting that Macedonia could benefit from partnerships). Indeed, some articles talked about China’s rapid progress and positioning as a serious competitor in AI and global tech – with one piece noting that “2025 is the year the investment world realized China is surpassing the rest of the world” in certain domains​. Such content frames China as an emerging leader and potentially valuable partner. On the other hand, anti-China narratives were equally prominent, often warning of the risks of Chinese debt-traps, lack of transparency, or geopolitical ambitions. For example, commentators questioned Chinese intentions or compared Europe’s lagging position to China’s surge, implicitly cautioning that reliance on China could be dangerous​​. A striking feature in North Macedonia’s China-related discussions was the accompanying anti-U.S. rhetoric in some of these conversations​. It appears that certain media segments used the topic of China to criticize the United States – for instance, by lauding China’s development model as superior to the West’s, or by arguing that U.S. tech giants were blindsided by Chinese competition (a narrative suggesting Western decline). An example from the media text is the observation that Western tech companies failed to anticipate competitors like China’s “DeepSeek” AI, which “either matches or exceeds the performance of the best American model, OpenAI, while being cheaper and more accessible”​. This kind of narrative not only praises China but simultaneously undermines U.S. leadership, feeding an anti-American sentiment in the context of China’s rise. Essentially, some Macedonian narratives posited that China’s gains are America’s losses, reflecting a geopolitical zero-sum view. 

In Kosovo’s media, the tone in that initial period was distinctly different. Coverage of China in Kosovo was largely framed through a pro-Western lens – strongly pro-U.S. and pro-EU – with China often portrayed in a neutral to negative light​. This means Kosovar outlets frequently mentioned China in contexts that reinforce alignment with Western partners. For example, if discussing infrastructure, they might highlight EU or U.S. support favorably and cast doubt on Chinese offers; or if covering international politics, they may echo Western concerns about China (such as human rights issues or security worries about Chinese technology). The result was that pro-China narratives were scarce in Kosovo’s media, and any Chinese initiatives were met with a degree of skepticism or downplayed. Given Kosovo’s strong pro-American sentiment historically, it’s not surprising that local media would echo U.S. perspectives on China. Even when Chinese involvement was reported, it tended to be contextualized with reminders of Kosovo’s Western alliances, thereby not allowing a significant pro-China narrative to take root. 

Chart 2: Narratives identified in media articles related to China, 01.07.2024-19.01.2025 

Post-Trump Media Shifts (January 20 - February 20, 2025) 

Moving into the early 2025 (post-Jan 20) period, there were some shifts. In North Macedonia, the media maintained a divided stance on China but showed an increase in anti-U.S. sentiment within those China-related discussions​. This suggests that as global tensions (like U.S.–China rivalry) intensified or became more highlighted, some Macedonian outlets doubled down on contrasting the two powers. Pro-China content remained strong, as did anti-China content – indicating ongoing internal debate – but the aspect of criticizing the U.S. when talking about China grew more pronounced. For instance, an article might praise China’s Belt and Road investments while simultaneously accusing the U.S. of trying to sabotage such projects or might frame China as a victim of U.S. aggression in a trade war. This trend underscores how China’s narrative in North Macedonia cannot be viewed in isolation; it’s entangled with how the U.S. is perceived. China-related topics started to serve as another front in the U.S. vs. China narrative battle on Macedonian soil​. Analysts noted that discussions about China increasingly “are no longer just about China itself but are shaped by U.S.-China competition in global affairs”​. For example, local media might reference Trump’s stance on China – such as tariffs or accusations against Chinese tech – thereby filtering Chinese developments through an American political lens. This is consistent with the broader “Trump effect” noted elsewhere, where even the topic of China gets pulled into the orbit of U.S. partisan discourse (some Macedonian commentators sympathetic to Trump echoed his tough line on China, while others, critical of the U.S., portrayed China more favorably in contrast). 

In Kosovo, by early 2025, the media became if anything more openly critical of China​. The already small amount of pro-China content dwindled further, and reports started to emphasize caution toward Chinese intentions more strongly. Additionally, both in North Macedonia and Kosovo, it was observed that discussions of China rarely invoked the EU in a negative or positive way – there were minimal anti-EU or pro-EU sub-narratives within the China topic​. This implies the China debate was framed mostly in terms of China vs. the U.S., rather than China vs. Europe; Europe was either on the same side as the U.S. (in Kosovo’s framing) or somewhat absent from the narrative focus (in North Macedonia, where the dichotomy was China vs. U.S.). 

 

Chart 3: Narratives identified in media articles related to China, 20.01.-20.02.2025 

Implications and Recommendations 

The findings underscore key geopolitical dynamics shaping regional policy and international partnerships. China’s influence is perceived very differently across the Balkans. In North Macedonia, the media landscape is divided, while in Kosovo, alignment with Western partners remains strong. North Macedonian discourse on China is often intertwined with attitudes toward the United States, demonstrating that China’s role cannot be analyzed in isolation from U.S. foreign policy. Meanwhile, Kosovo’s strong pro-Western positioning suggests that Chinese investments face an uphill battle in securing trust or legitimacy in the country. 

As China continues its economic diplomacy in the Balkans, its reception will vary based on how media narratives shape public opinion. Policymakers should recognize these disparities and tailor their engagement strategies accordingly. Addressing growing anti-U.S. rhetoric in North Macedonia is crucial, as this sentiment could impact broader Western partnerships. Additionally, enhancing EU visibility in discussions about economic alternatives to China’s Belt and Road Initiative is necessary to ensure that China does not emerge as the region’s only viable economic partner. 

Media and civil society organizations should focus on promoting media literacy programs to counter polarized narratives driven by geopolitical agendas. Encouraging balanced reporting that critically examines both the benefits and risks of Chinese investments is essential in fostering informed public discourse. Monitoring the impact of U.S. policy shifts on regional narratives, especially as the Trump presidency unfolds, will be key to understanding how Balkan media continue to evolve in response to global power struggles. 

International stakeholders, particularly the EU and the U.S., must strengthen economic engagement in the Balkans to provide credible alternatives to Chinese investments. Ensuring that funding mechanisms such as EU infrastructure programs are clearly communicated and accessible to the public will be critical in countering China’s growing economic footprint in the region. 

Conclusion: Will China’s Soft Power Dominate or Backfire? 

China’s influence in the Western Balkans remains a contested issue. North Macedonia presents a divided perspective, where China’s role is debated through the lens of U.S.-China competition, while Kosovo’s media firmly reinforces a pro-Western stance. The U.S.-China rivalry is a driving force behind how China is perceived in the region, and these shifting narratives will play a crucial role in determining the success or failure of Beijing’s strategic ambitions. As global power struggles continue to shape media landscapes, Western actors must actively engage in the region to ensure that China’s growing presence does not go unchallenged.